[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices fluctuated mainly on June 30, with the US May core PCE price index higher than expected

SMM Nickel News on June 30:

Macro News:

(1) Trump: A ceasefire in Gaza may be "close" to being reached and could be achieved within a week; if Iran agrees to peace, sanctions on Iran will be lifted. If Iran continues enrichment activities, air strikes on Iran may be reconsidered. It is not believed that Iran is hiding some of its enriched uranium before the US launches an attack; the US Senate rejected a proposal to limit Trump's power to wage war against Iran.

(2) US consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in May, lower than the market expectation of a 0.1% increase. Inflation rose mildly, with the US May core PCE price index annual rate recording 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6% and hitting a new high since February 2025. The US May core PCE price index monthly rate recorded 0.2%, with the market expecting it to remain unchanged at 0.1%. Traders increased their bets that the US Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2025.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 120,900-123,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,250 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,500-2,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -150-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) opened directly below 121,000 yuan/mt in the morning session and then maintained a small fluctuating trend. By the close of the morning session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,840 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt or 0.17%.

Macro sentiment has improved marginally, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly around the 120,000 yuan/mt level in the short term. However, with downstream demand currently in the off-season, the long-term surplus pattern of nickel is difficult to reverse, and the price center may gradually move down.